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ANALYSIS: Not a single soul inside the All Blacks camp would dare say what everyone else is thinking.
They can’t afford to. Although we know they’re probably on a collision path with Ireland for the Rugby World Cup quarterfinal at Stade de France in Paris on October 16, a consequence of the Irish beating South Africa 13-8 in Paris on Sunday morning, the All Blacks can’t bang on about that fixture before getting their remaining pool games against Italy and Uruguay out of the way.
Fair enough. It would be more than disrespectful; it would be foolhardy, given they aren’t guaranteed to progress into the playoffs after France beat them in their opening game on September 9.
It’s essential the All Blacks roll Italy in Lyon next Saturday, before planting a convincing shot on Uruguay to secure a bonus-point win and build up their confidence levels in the same city on October 6.
Will the All Blacks win both games? Nothing is guaranteed in sport, but yes, you can whack a decent wedge of money on that being the outcome.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster would have drawn-up his selection plans for these games well in advance, and is likely to start his best team against the Italians before sending out a mix-and-match XV against Uruguay.
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Ireland duo Mack Hansen James Lowe celebrate after their team beat South Africa 13-8 in Paris.
That last mission could be a tricky one. The sight of French captain and halfback Antoine Dupont leaving the field with a serious facial injury during the fixture against Namibia, a game Les Bleus won 96-0, has reinforced how misfortune can blow apart the most detailed of strategies.
French coach Fabian Galthie copped criticism for keeping Dupont on the park when his side was so far ahead on the scoreboard. But there’s always risks in rugby. During a World Cup, you need luck. The rest comes down to talent, hard graft, selections and the players performing to their potential at the sharp end of the event.
The All Blacks always knew they were likely to face Ireland, South Africa or at a pinch, Scotland, in their quarterfinal.
The defeat to France has forced the All Blacks, who are expected to finish as runner-up in Pool A, to travel a difficult path.
Ireland are now at the shortest of odds to qualify top of Pool B, and face the All Blacks in Paris.
After watching the Irish beat the Springboks from their camp in Bordeaux, the All Blacks must have felt the hairs on the back of their necks bristle.
Had the Springboks kicked their goals, Manie Lubbok and Faf de Klerk left 11 points out on the park, the All Blacks would be preparing to confront a foe that thrashed them 35-7 in London in a pre-tournament game in London last month.
Not great for the confidence, obviously, but they could have reminded each other they were good enough to beat the Boks 35-20 in Auckland on July 15.
As for Ireland, well, there’s more reasons to be nervous.
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All Blacks No 8 Ardie Savea charges at Tiaan Swanepoel of Namibia during the match in Toulouse last weekend.
Since suffering their first-ever defeat to the Irish in Chicago in 2016, when Joe Schmidt was head coach, the All Blacks have lost 4 of their last 6 games to the men in green.
Their last two defeats were in Wellington and Dunedin. The tourists secured an historic series win on New Zealand soil after rebounding from a defeat in Auckland in the first test.
Watching the Irish salute their ecstatic fans at Stade de France after the win over the Springboks, many were singing Zombie by The Cranberries, was a reminder that they can count on the rowdy support of their people for the big clash in Paris.
The major concern for the All Blacks is that Ireland know they can improve. The Springboks unpicked their lineout with alarming ease in the first half; the Irish lost eight of their own throws, either through their own errors or by succumbing to pressure in the air.
As for the good stuff, there was loads of that to satisfy Ireland coach Andy Farrell as he aims to negotiate the remaining pool fixture against Scotland in a fortnight.
At the previous World Cup in Japan in 2019, Farrell worked as an assistant under Schmidt. Promoted to the top job when the latter departed, and later joined the All Blacks as an assistant to Foster, Farrell has moulded Ireland into a more deadly unit.
They are one of the most organised defensive teams on the planet and their competitiveness and accuracy at the breakdown gave them a crucial edge over the Springboks.
In 2019 the All Blacks humiliated Ireland 46-14 in the quarterfinal in Yokohama, ending Schmidt’s tenure on a bum note.
Schmidt, along with Foster, will depart the All Blacks to make way for a fresh regime under Scott Robertson after this tournament.
The All Blacks’ supporters can only hope there’s a happier ending for him in France. Ireland have reminded us, again, why they’re at the top of World Rugby’s rankings.
Foster and his assistants have two weeks to mastermind a plan that can blow them off their perch.
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