Newsable: will we be able to trust data from the 2023 census?

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The 2023 census was, by definition, a massive undertaking.

You’re trying to do a survey of more than five million people, scattered in every nook and cranny in the country.

Looming in the background was the fact that the 2018 census didn’t really go according to plan.

The response rate was the lowest in 50 years. Statistics NZ acknowledged it relied too heavily on online submissions. A review into the debacle led to the resignation of then-chief statistician Liz MacPherson.

And then, to top it all off, a massive cyclone hit the country three weeks out from Census Day.

So in a sense, it’s no surprise there are fears that once again, New Zealand’s quinquennial stocktake of its population might be less robust than you’d hope.

“Stats NZ has made some really good changes this year”, Dawnelle Clyne, a research fellow at the Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures tells Stuff’s podcast Newsable.

“The turnout is still not where we’d expect it to be at this moment.

“As of today, about 4.5 million people have returned their individual forms, about 88 percent of the population.

“Māori uptake is a bit over 70% – just a little bit better than 2018. So we’re still hoping there is going to be more uptake before the end of June.”

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The census might seem like it’s only really of use for statistics nerds and demographers, but the data gathered in the population survey affects everyone.

It helps central and local governments to develop policies. It tells us how many people are still smoking; what areas of the country have the most young people living in them; which households don’t have any access to electricity.

Outside of voting, it is one of the biggest, most direct things we can do to participate in democracy.

“It allows us to see how things are changing in a society over time,” Clyne says.

“Are we doing well? Are we progressing? Are there inequities in society?

“(Governments) have resources … where are those tax dollars going to be used?”

While Clyne acknowledges there were extenuating circumstances this year, it is possible the census once again returns suboptimal numbers.

This is a great source of frustration to demographers and economists like Clyne, who for the past five years have had to refer to the 2013 census as the most reliable source of population data we have.

“And that’s not what you want. Things would’ve changed between 2013 and 2018, and you want to capture these changes. Missing out these groups … is not going to be helpful.”

Newsable is Stuff’s daily news podcast, wrapping up what’s worth talking about in a short package every weekday morning. You can find new episodes and more detail on our stories here or in our newsletter. Make sure to like and follow us wherever you get your podcasts and across Instagram, TikTok and YouTube.