Advantage Crusaders as Super Rugby Pacific title race enters familiar territory

ANALYSIS: Don’t send the trophy to the engravers just yet. But it’s hard to shake the feeling that it’s the Crusaders everyone is chasing over the business end of Super Rugby Pacific.

The Blues, Chiefs and perennial champ Crusaders (13 titles, and counting) all came through their quarterfinal assignments with varying degrees of difficulty, or comfort as the case may be. They will be joined in a heavyweight semifinal lineup by the victor of the late Saturday game in Canberra between the Brumbies and Hurricanes.

The Blues rumbled past the Waratahs 41-12 in Auckland, the Chiefs stumbled before finding their feet in the nick of time against the Reds in Hamilton and the Crusaders crumbled a Fijian Drua side (49-8) that showed glimpses of resistance, but was never going to be able to go the distance on a chilly night in the south.

The first of the semis between the Crusaders and Blues in Christchurch on Friday night shapes as a monty, not the least because of the feeling that exists between the two sides, and the certain matter that the red and blacks have over the years played with their Auckland rivals much in the manner which a tomcat terrorises an unfortunate mouse.

In case you haven’t been keeping track at home, the Crusaders, who have never lost a Super Rugby finals match in Christchurch, have beaten the Blues in 17 of their last 18 matchups. And they still call it a rivalry?

Among that count was the magnificent 21-7 ambush in last year’s inaugural Super Rugby Pacific final that earned a sixth straight championship under master coach Scott Robertson. The Blues had ridden a 15-match win streak into that contest, and were taught a costly lesson via a brilliant display of finals footy.

That’s why, when contemplating a semifinal against the Crusaders, the Blues quickly bristled, referring to “bad blood” which you have to think sits mostly on their side of the equation. The Aucklanders thirst for just a taste of what the Crusaders have had on near annual occasions, and are now mighty close to it.

But the way the Crusaders – down a handful of key players – came through their quarterfinal against the Drua, they look more than up for the challenge against a Blues side that has the size, firepower and talent to make history, but faces serious questions over their mental strength and ability to negotiate the perils of a tight knockout encounter.

The Crusaders know the way from here blindfolded. They have the recipe for championship football ingrained on their minds. They know exactly what they have to do against the Blues on Friday, and it won’t be a heck of a lot different than what they did to the Drua. Just a little bit better, probably.

The Blues are not without hope. They have the top-end talent to win any game on any day. And some of them are starting to find some form. They also have the motivation. Last year’s final defeat was embarrassing. This is their first proper chance to right that wrong.

But to have any chance they’re going to have to produce a performance for the ages. Disciplined. Yet bold. Accurate. Yet with lashings of flair. One thing they know is that the Crusaders will hand them nothing. Everything they take away from OT Stadium will be hard-earned.

Only time will tell whether the Chiefs’ difficulties on Saturday in Hamilton, when they were pushed to the limit in scratching out a 29-20 victory over the Queensland Reds, was anything more than a bump on what’s been a mostly smooth road in 2023.

For sure a testing encounter in which they trailed into the final quarter would have served as a timely reminder of what’s required at finals time. Also the way they negotiated a tight spot, got their noses back in front, and then made the game safe with a late try was a good sign given what lies ahead over the next week or two.

Those sort of moments are sure to come again. There’s a comfort in knowing that you’ve been able to solve the puzzle in the heat of battle. For much of this year the Chiefs have simply blown teams off the park with their ability to strike with great rapidity.

The Reds, the only side to defeat the Chiefs this season, did not allow them that luxury. They unsettled the minor premiers for long periods, got into them physically, knocked them off their kilter and were good enough to work up three well-earned tries through the first 60 minutes.

But when it really mattered the Chiefs found the answers. Shaun Stevenson was outstanding, Emoni Narawa flashed his danger, Anton Lienert-Brown took another stride towards his best stuff and Pita Gus Sowakula, Brodie Retallick and Samison Taukei’aho muscled up effectively.

The Chiefs remain on course at a stadium they won’t leave. But the red and black danger lurks menacingly.