[ad_1]
ANALYSIS: Now we know what South Africa are like if they don’t split up their squad, and do start Malcolm Marx at hooker.
The Marx factor is real: the All Blacks’ two recent wins against South Africa (Johannesburg last year and Mt Smart in July), came with Marx on the bench.
When Marx starts (Mbombela last year and Twickenham at the weekend), the Springboks are a different beast.
They had the All Blacks’ measure in London: too powerful, too big, too fast – and that doesn’t look reversible in the short term.
When South Africa came to New Zealand in the Rugby Championship, they did so in two groups and half of their 23 looked underdone. They didn’t even challenge at the lineout, where they were all over the All Blacks at Twickenham. The All Blacks will likely begin the Rugby World Cup ranked No 4 in the world. That doesn’t seem unfair.
But, after a wild weekend of test rugby that saw Fiji beat England and Ireland scrape past Manu Samoa 17-13, it’s not necessarily a knockout blow for the All Blacks’ Rugby World Cup hopes.
However, Ireland are looking like more preferable quarterfinal opponents than South Africa.
The Irish are a dynamic and sophisticated rugby team, but they don’t have South Africa’s unrelenting power, size or depth.
An understrength Ireland struggled in the scrums against Samoa, and for large parts of the game they were second best at the gainline.
Alex Davidson/Getty Images
In their past four tests against South Africa, the All Blacks lost the two contests when Malcolm Marx didn’t start for the Springboks.
Should the All Blacks have Shannon Frizell and Brodie Retallick back on deck for the quarterfinals, which take place on October 15-16, NZ Time, they shouldn’t be physically outmatched by the Irish, who also lost experienced prop Cian Healy to what appeared to be a serious injury against Samoa.
As for Samoa, they now look like legitimate contenders to qualify from Pool D, which also includes struggling England, out-of-form Japan, Argentina and Chile.
Samoa coach Seilala Mapusua has put together a strong squad that includes Lima Sopoaga, Jordan Taufua, Ben Lam, Taleni Seu, Steven Luatua and Miracle Failagi, and some New Zealand-based players who didn’t make the All Blacks must now be wondering if they should have made the switch to Moana Pasifika to be part of this adventure.
Fiji beat England 30-22 at Twickenham with something to spare, and Mapusua and his coaching team – highly regarded former Crusaders assistant Andrew Goodman, Mahonri Schwalger, Tana Umaga, Tom Coventry and Tusi Pisi – would have noted how England struggled to cope with Fiji’s gamebreaking athletes.
Samoa have a few of those themselves, and the Samoa-England Pool D encounter on October 8, NZ Time, could be special.
Fiji are part of Pool C alongside Australia, Georgia, Wales and Portugal. Remarkably, Fiji will go into the Rugby World Cup as the highest-ranked nation in their group, unless the Wallabies beat France in Paris overnight on Sunday.
There are rising hopes this tournament will be a turning point for the Pacific Islands.
As for the All Blacks, they know they’ll probably see Marx and his massive mates at some stage – but preferably not until the final.
[ad_2]