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Climate experts thought 95% renewable electricity could be achieved by 2030. Aotearoa reached that climate goal last December – almost.
In the last quarter of 2022, hydro dams, geothermal plants, wind and solar farms provided 94.7% of all power – the highest share since records began in 1974, according to Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment data.
In recent years, large supplies of Indonesian coal have been imported to feed the grid. But imports plummeted late last year.
As people are incentivised to purchase EVs and businesses receive grants to install heat pumps and other green tech, the share of electricity provided from renewable power stations is increasingly under scrutiny.
Experts, including the Climate Change Commission, stress the national grid will get progressively cleaner. In its draft advice, the commission estimated the grid would be 95% renewable sometime between 2030 and 2035.
But a very wet spring over the North Island meant hydro dams produced significantly more electricity, and this target was very nearly surpassed.
Units burning coal and gas ran less frequently. Coal provided just 1% of all electricity over the quarter. Just 18 months earlier, the dirtiest fossil fuel contributed 12% of all power.
To supply Huntly’s coal-burning units, 36,000 tonnes of coal were imported in the three months to December – 94% less than the amount arriving in June 2021.
Until December, the cleanest quarter on record was March 1980, where 94.6% of electricity came from hydro, geothermal and wood-fired generators.
Renewable electricity could stay high for at least another quarter. The heavy rain and devastating flooding in early 2023 means the North Island hydro lakes are currently high.
But the wet weather could turn to drier conditions later this year. The Pacific climate pattern known as La Niña is responsible for bringing lots of rain to the north and east of the country, according to Niwa.
Meteorologists predict La Niña could transition to El Niño – which brings westerly winds across the country and can leave the east dry – this year.
While dry spells could be welcome news for North Island communities, El Niño conditions could reduce hydro generation.
Yet new clean energy projects are coming online. The Tauhara geothermal station, built by Contact Energy, will add a significant amount of power to the grid and is due to begin operating before the end of the year.
To consistently achieve 95% renewable power, generators would need to build even more geothermal, wind and solar to supplement hydro when the rain doesn’t fall. In addition, clean tech – such as large-scale batteries and pumped-hydro dams – can store green energy when it’s plentiful and feed it to the grid when demand is higher.
The petrol price crunch kept a lid on oil consumption, according to ministry data. Consumers typically buys more petrol and diesel in the run-up to Christmas. But families and businesses consumed 5% less oil compared to the same period in 2019.
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