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FIFA Women’s World Cup final: Spain v England; Where: Stadium Australia, Sydney; When: Sunday 10pm [NZ time]; Coverage: Live on Sky Sport 1, Prime, Stuff; live updates on Stuff.
Spain’s prospects of winning the FIFA Women’s World Cup looked bleak when Japan hammered them 4-0 in Wellington in their final group match nearly three weeks ago.
La Roja arrived in New Zealand shrouded in controversy after 15 players threatened to quit last year unless coach Jorge Vilda was fired.
He wasn’t, three of those mutineers were selected for the World Cup, and Spain have managed to reach the final against England on Sunday after a 2-1 semifinal success over Sweden at Eden Park on Tuesday night, despite the turmoil behind the scenes.
That heavy Japan defeat reduced their chances of becoming world champions to 6% in Stuff’s power rankings after the group stage, as Spain had to negotiate the tougher side of the draw after advancing as runners-up from group C.
They were among the leading contenders to lift the World Cup before it started, at 9%, with England the third favourites on 14% behind France and the United States.
How do Stuff’s power rankings work? Find out here.
Their chances have steadily improved while knocking over fellow European sides on their road to the final. The continent’s best, England, await in the decider when a new name will be on the trophy after Spain’s wins over Switzerland (5-1), the Netherlands (2-1 after extra time) and Sweden (2-1) in the knockout stages.
England are favourites in Stuff’s match predictor at 61% after breaking Australian hearts with an impressive 3-1 victory in Wednesday night’s Sydney semifinal.
Spain won’t be deterred after their respective quarterfinal and semifinal victories over the Netherlands and Sweden in matches they weren’t favoured to win. The likelihood of them going all way increased from 8% to 17%, then 39% ahead of the final.
Salma Paralluelo was their key player in those wins, coming off the bench and scoring the winner against the Dutch in Wellington and the opener against Sweden.
They had also thrashed Switzerland to reach the quarterfinals for the first time after a 5-1 rout at Eden Park. Before the Japan defeat, they beat Costa Rica (3-0) and Zambia (5-0) in New Zealand.
KAI SCHWOERER/Stuff
Salma Paralluelo celebrating her winning goal in Spain’s quarterfinal victory over the Netherlands.
As for England, who beat Spain 2-1 in extra-time in last year’s quarterfinal on their way to winning the European Championships, they have remained the favourites since finishing top of group D in Australia, where they beat Haiti (1-0), Denmark (1-0) and China (6-1).
Their prospects improved from 14% to 26% after the group stage when they climbed above the United States, the reigning champions who were pre-tournament favourites but were knocked out by Sweden in a dramatic penalty shootout in the round of 16 in Melbourne.
England survived a major scare in the round of 16, needing penalties to beat Nigeria in Brisbane after a 0-0 draw when star attacking midfielder Lauren James was sent off for stamping on Michelle Alozie.
They also became the first side to record a comeback victory in the World Cup’s knockout stages when they beat Colombia 2-1 in their quarterfinal in Sydney, improving their chances of winning the tournament to 36%.
Abbie Parr/AP
Alessia Russo scored England’s third goal to beat the Matildas in Sydney.
The Lionesses weren’t at their best in those matches when they were heavily favoured to win.
Yet they saved their best performance for Wednesday’s semifinal, knocking out the Matildas, and have made their first World Cup final after semifinal defeats in 2015 and 2019.
England remain the favourites to become the fifth world champions in the World Cup’s ninth edition and join former winners the United States, Norway, Germany and Japan.
Meanwhile, beaten semifinalists Australia and Sweden have to contest the dreaded play-off for third place in Brisbane on Saturday night.
You can see the forecast for the World Cup’s final matches in Stuff’s power rankings here.
Spain results so far
Group C (runners-up)
July 21: Won 3-0 v Costa Rica, Wellington
July 26: Won 5-0 v Zambia, Auckland
July 31: Lost 4-0 v Japan, Wellington
August 5 – round of 16: Won 5-1 v Switzerland, Auckland
August 11 – quarterfinal: Won 2-1 v Netherlands, Wellington
August 15 – semifinal: Won 2-1 v Sweden, Auckland
England results so far
Group D (winners)
July 22: Won 1-0 v Haiti, Brisbane
July 28: Won 1-0 v Denmark, Sydney
August 1: Won 6-1 v China, Adelaide
August 7 – round of 16: Drew 0-0 v Nigeria, Brisbane (aet; England won 4-2 on pens)
August 12 – quarterfinal: Won 2-1 v Colombia, Sydney
August 16 – semifinal: Won 3-1 v Australia, Sydney
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