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Gareth Hughes, a former Green MP, works for the Wellbeing Economy Alliance Aotearoa. He is not a member of any political party.
OPINION: Twenty years ago I marched with 150,000 other people in Melbourne in an effort to stop the looming war against Iraq.
George W Bush’s intent to attack even though he lacked both evidence of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and United Nations backing – saw millions of people in 600 cities around the world take to the streets to unite in protest.
Helen Clark’s decision not to participate in the invasion, whose anniversary is being remembered this week, was the right call and has been vindicated over the ensuing two decades.
Today, the drum beats of war can be heard again, this time closer to home in the Pacific.
READ MORE:
* Why New Zealand should remain sceptical about Aukus
* Australia to build hypersonic missiles with US and Britain as arms race heats up
* ‘US and UK must stop’: Chinese diplomat warns New Zealand audience of Australia’s nuclear ambitions
* The Detail: What Australia’s nuclear submarine deal means for New Zealand
* Australia’s nuclear sub deal ‘gravely undermines regional peace’ says China
RNZ
RNZ’s podcast the Detail asks if the new AUKUS deal a sign of our traditional allies pulling away, or perhaps a blessing in disguise.
The best you can say about the United States-China relationship right now is at least it’s a cold war and not a hot one. Both countries now openly talk of conflict and confrontation. It feels somewhat like 2003 again where armed conflict is gaining an inevitable momentum of its own.
War between the nuclear superpowers is now not described as hypothetical or far-fetched, but terrifyingly possible in the next few years and increasingly likely over the coming decades.
Statements by the two countries are becoming more aggressive and each action from launching and shooting down spy balloons, sanctions on semiconductors or incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone ratchets up the tension.
Much like the inexorable march to the first and second world wars, offramps aren’t being taken and guardrails seem ineffective.
Gong Yulong/AP
Chinese fighter jets in combat training exercises around Taiwan in August 2022. Taiwan is a likely flashpoint for conflict between China and the US.
This grim sense of inevitability has well and truly dominated the conversation in Australia. “Are We Ready for War” scream multiple recent headlines in the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and Sky News.
This week’s unprecedented Aukus announcement for Australia to purchase American nuclear submarines and jointly develop a new nuclear-powered submarine with the United Kingdom further feeds into this sense.
This eye-wateringly expensive programme – costing up to $368b – is unambiguously aimed at China.
China responded bluntly, describing it as “a blatant act that constitutes serious nuclear proliferation risks, undermines international non-proliferation system, fuels arms races, and hurts peace and stability in the region”.
China itself is undergoing a massive military building programme and hasn’t renounced the use of force to retake Taiwan which is the most likely flashpoint.
As part of the Aukus deal Western Australia will play host to US and UK nuclear submarines from 2027. With nuclear-capable American B52 bombers and thousands of American marines rotating through the Northern Territory, Australia is lining up as a loyal lieutenant to the United States in the Pacific and would be expected to fight should war break out.
Would New Zealanders fight in a war between the nuclear superpowers? While we aren’t required by treaty obligations to act if America or Taiwan are attacked we are if Australia is. It is not an exaggeration to say Australia could be a target in a future war and already the country has been threatened with missile attacks in that scenario.
The risks of New Zealand being dragged in are real. Unlike in Australia, the conversation in New Zealand has been much more muted with limited discussion on the likelihood of war. Why aren’t we talking about it?
New Zealand is in a difficult situation contemplating conflict between our largest trading partner and traditional security partner.
We weren’t invited to join Aukus and Australian nuclear submarines won’t be allowed to berth here under our nuclear-free legislation. That same legislation sees New Zealand as only a friend and not an ally of the United States, but we are increasingly acting like we are an ally.
In the years since New Zealand’s principled decision not to join the invasion of Iraq we have become more enmeshed with the United States defence apparatus.
Our troops fought together in Afghanistan and later served together in Iraq. Rocket Lab launches US Air Force payloads, and we remain in the intelligence inner circle as a Five Eyes nation. New Zealand Navy vessels took part in exercises off Guam and Okinawa with carrier strike groups including participating in freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea.
New Zealand’s military spending as a percentage of GDP has increased significantly under the Labour Government and big new spends have been focused on interoperability.
Evan Vucci/AP
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese shakes hands with President Joe Biden during a news conference in San Diego, as they unveil, Aukus, a trilateral security pact between Australia, Britain, and the United States.
This includes the purchase of four new P-8A Poseidon aircraft to replace the decades-old P3 Orion’s.
At $2.3b the Poseidon aircraft were much more expensive than alternatives that could have also undertaken search and rescue and fisheries patrol work because of their ability to work with partners and conduct anti-submarine warfare in a future conflict.
Former prime minister Jacinda Ardern even received an unprecedented invitation to attend a Nato Leaders Summit in Europe. Today, it’s almost as if the Anzus split of the 1980s never happened.
Twenty years ago New Zealand displayed its independent foreign policy by refusing to be railroaded into Bush’s “coalition of the willing”, despite opposition from the National Party at the time.
This wasn’t because we supported or shared values with the reprehensible Saddam Hussein, but because the case for Iraqi weapons of mass destruction wasn’t sufficiently made, and the invasion wasn’t sanctioned by the United Nations.
With the power of hindsight we now know the threat of WMD was over-hyped and the planning for the aftermath was absolutely dismal.
Just because New Zealand is more closely linked with the United States by history, culture and values doesn’t mean we have to blindly fall into line and follow whatever they do.
We can forcefully and peacefully argue for democracy, promote a genuine rules-based international order and can stand up for persecuted minorities.
Andy Jackson/Stuff
Gareth Hughes is a former Green MP and now works for the Wellbeing Economy Alliance Aotearoa.
I fear we risk seeing our children sent off to war in the future if current actions continue.
New Zealanders need to talk more about the risks, our decision-makers need to explain why New Zealand is aligning more closely with the United States military and as a sovereign country we have to ask are we acting independently or as a cog in a machine?
Our role could be focused on reducing tensions, finding solutions and building trust. War is never inevitable.
The Iraq War anniversary reminds us it’s important to stop the slide to war before it’s too late.
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