Labour and National neck-and-neck, with just one seat in it, in latest poll

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Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon look close in the contest for the next PM.

Stuff

Labour leader Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon look close in the contest for the next PM.

A single seat could hold the balance of power, according to the latest political poll.

Labour and National are neck-and-neck in Curia’s latest political poll, both sitting at about 35%.

Polling from Curia, released by the Taxpayers’ Union on Thursday, showed Labour and the Greens at 41.2% against National and ACT’s 44.1%.

On these numbers, National and ACT would be able to form a Government – but it’s a tight race.

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Looking at seats in the House, Curia said these numbers showed Labour would be the largest party, with 49 seats, but even then would not be able to govern.

That is because Curia predicted the Greens would return with just eight seats, two less than they have now.

Even with the Māori Party’s extra two seats, a Labour-led coalition would fall just short of being able to form a Government, with just 59 seats.

ACT and National were predicted to have 61 seats.

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Although Labour wouldn’t be able to govern, according to Curia’s latest polling, this result was an improvement from February’s poll. Labour was up 1.1%, to 35.5% in the March poll.

Curia’s polling also showed that Labour’s new leader, Chris Hipkins, continued to leave a fairly good impression with the public. His net favour ability score, measuring whether people think he’s doing a good or bad job, increased further – up 6% since February’s poll – to 33%.

“Chris Hipkins’s net favourability rating continues to soar,” the Taxpayers Union release, for its latest polling, said.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has a 33% favorability rating in Curia’s latest poll.

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has a 33% favorability rating in Curia’s latest poll.

Meanwhile, National leader Christopher Luxon continued to sit in negatives. He was 3% closer to a neutral score, up from -5% to -2%.

National had also risen in party vote, by 0.4%, to 34.8%.

Both support parties, the Greens and ACT, had fallen just over 2% each in the past month.

Most of those votes were moving to parties outside of Parliament, including NZ First.

That added support helped boost NZ First, ever closer to the 5% threshold required to return to Parliament. It sat at 4.2%.

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