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Another political poll has shown a National-ACT coalition could govern if the election was held tomorrow, as Labour gets bogged down by scandal.
A Newshub-Reid Research poll published on Wednesday night showed Labour had the support of 32.3% of those surveyed, a drop of 3.6 percentage points from a May poll, and a return to a level of support last seen before Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ reset of the party after Jacinda Ardern quit.
National has slightly lifted its support, by 1.3 percentage points, to 36.6%. With ACT also rising 1.3 percentage points, reaching 12.1%, the centre-right bloc would claim 63 seats in Parliament and the right to govern.
Labour would be out of Government, unable to reach the required seats even in coalition with the Green Party at 9.6%, and Te Pāti Māori at 2.7%, presuming they ride an electorate win into the House.
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Such a coalition would have 57 seats, falling short of the 61 required to form Government.
This poll result resembles that of a 1 News Verian poll in July. In both polls, National has struggled to consistently break away to gain more than the mid-30s in support.
The Newshub poll had a margin of error of 3.1%, meaning the shifts in support for National and ACT, and the Green Party at 1.5 percentage points, fell within the margin.
It was taken between July 26 to 31, as Hipkins was dealing with the latest Cabinet minister to lose their job, Kiri Allan.
Stuff
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon continue to battle for support, with a National-ACT coalition having the edge on Labour in the latest political poll.
Allan, a rising star in the party, was charged with careless use of a motor vehicle and refusing to accompany a police officer after crashing a ministerial car. She also blew over the legal limit for breath alcohol and was given an infringement notice.
A silver lining for Labour was that, in the poll, more than 50% of those polled believed Hipkins handled the difficult situation with Allan well.
Hipkins also retained more popularity with those polled, and more trust.
Hipkins rated as preferred prime minister with 24% of those polled, and National Party leader Christopher Luxon – who has struggled to make gains in such ratings – was at 15.9%.
On a question of which leader was trusted, 35% said they trusted Luxon, and 46.9% said they did not.
Whereas 51.5% said they trusted Hipkins, and 34.9% said they did not.
The minor parties, ACT and the Green Party maintained high levels of support in the poll.
NZ First, ousted from Parliament at the 2020 election, was at 4.1%, a rise of 1.1 percentage points and nearing the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament after an election.
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