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Te Pāti Māori could still be the kingmaker in a tight election, the latest political poll suggests, with Labour marginally ahead of National.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour and National would each need to look to minor parties to form a government after October’s general election.
Labour was at 35.9%, down from 2.1 percentage points, while National was down 1.3 percentage points to 35.3%.
The poll is a snapshot of public perception after Meka Whatiri’s defected from Labour to Te Pāti Māori and National Party leader Christopher Luxon formally ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori.
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* National’s Christopher Luxon officially rules out working with Māori Party
Stuff
Labour leader Chris Hipkins, National leader Christopher Luxon, Stuff generic
ACT was up at 10.8%, while the Greens were maintaining their position at 8.1% despite dominating headlines after Elizabeth Kerekere resigned from the party as a result of bullying allegations.
Te Pāti Māori picked up support, growing to 3.5%, up 1.7 percentage points. It is still shy of the 5% needed to get into Parliament without winning an electorate seat.
NZ First may also be gaining support. It is at 3%, up 0.8.
Meanwhile, The Opportunities Party is at 2%, up 0.5.
On the poll’s numbers, if Te Pāti Māori wins an electorate, it’ll get five seats. If added to Labour’s 46, and the Greens’ 10, the left bloc has just enough seats – 61 – to form a majority in Parliament.
National and ACT together only reached 59 seats.
In its last poll, released at the end of January, Labour rose to 38%, up a mighty 5.7 points, and National dipped back under Labour to 36.6%, down 4.1 points.
The Greens have fallen to 8.1, down 1.4 percentage points, and ACT saw a small bump of 0.7, taking it to 10.7%.
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins is still ahead as preferred prime minister, and gaining ground. He was on 23.4%, up 3.8 points, while Luxon had dropped to 16.4%, down 2.4 points. It is Luxon’s lowest score in the poll.
Meanwhile, 8.5% were keen for Jacinda Ardern to return, while 7.5% wanted David Seymour in the top job.
A further 3.6% were wishing for Winston Peters, and 2.3% wanted Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 5 May-11 May 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
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