Poll boost for Chris Hipkins shows election right back in play

Luke Malpass is Stuff’s political editor.

ANALYSIS: They might be knee-deep in Auckland floods, Cabinet reshuffles and policy reset, but Chris Hipkins and the Labour apparatus will be breathing a very big sigh of relief at the poll numbers tonight from both 1 News Kantar Poll and the Newshub Reid Research Poll.

Both polls, which have been taken in the past week, show the transaction benefits for Labour have well outweighed the costs of the leadership change. Not that Labour had a choice after Jacinda Ardern decided to stand down.

It also, interestingly, shows what no Labour figures dared to consider a fortnight ago – that the party might have better prospects under a leader other than Ardern. Hipkins, it now appears, could be that person. In other words, by the time Ardern left, she might have been a drag on the party vote.

READ MORE:
* Poll: Chris Hipkins delivers boost for Labour
* Chris Hipkins vs Christopher Luxon: The tale of two Chrises
* Chris Hipkins reorients Labour towards fighting ‘pandemic of inflation’

Clearly, the smoothly conceived and well-executed change to Hipkins has also paid off for Labour.

The poll, which was last taken at the end of November, gives Labour a five-point boost to bring it to 38% – a whisker in front of National at 37%, while ACT was on 10%, the Green Party on 7%, and NZ First, Te Pāti Māori and TOP all on 2%.

Unusually, the Newshub Reid Research Poll produced almost exactly the same results, with slightly more variation in the minor party results, despite being conducted over a slightly different period.

Hipkins and Luxon were evenly matched on the preferred prime minister ratings on both polls. Although, worryingly for National, a question about trust posed by Newshub suggested net trust in Hipkins was significantly higher than that for Luxon.

Now, these figures should be taken with caution. This is only the first poll and while a new leader often generates excitement and a bump, without a few other changes to make the Government look genuinely different to the one under Ardern, it could slip back again.

Hipkins will be well aware of this as he balances both his Cabinet reshuffle and his reprioritisation of policies – otherwise known as the chuck-out pile.

It also poses a significant challenge for Luxon and National, which has ridden the tide of discontent with the Government over the past year. This suggests National will have to reassess its tactics and how Luxon is presented over the coming months.

In the end, polls tend to follow performance. So while Labour has got a bump from the change, Hipkins will now have to preside over quite a different Government to Ardern. Its plans around inflation, which policies it ditches, and how permanently they are ditched will all matter – as will how the economy performs.

These are the things voters will be keeping an eye out for.

Luxon has made the running over the past few months. Now he will have to step up again to regain momentum.