Rugby World Cup: Record Boks defeat does not change the stark recipe for All Blacks

ANALYSIS: The more things change, the more they stay the same. This All Blacks’ World Cup campaign is always going to be decided by how they handle a mid-October quarterfinal date with destiny, and the worst defeat in over a century of test matches does nothing to alter that.

So while it is easy to paint the picture of an All Blacks outfit teetering on the brink less than two weeks from their World Cup opener in Paris, after yet another low point in the Ian Foster era at Twickenham early Saturday (NZT), the reality is the 35-7 defeat to South Africa has done little to change the challenge for a side that has the capacity to both excite and excruciate, depending on the mood, the opponent or the referee.

As Foster’s men sashayed through the Rugby Championship this year in imperious fashion, and then dug their way out of a significant hole with an untested group in Dunedin, a narrative emerged that suggested they had turned the corner on their inconsistencies and inadequacies of 2022.

But that was too simplistic. The Boks turned up in Auckland with a core group that hadn’t played in a couple of months, and were badly underdone. Argentina are not the force they once were, and easy pickings for a team on its game. And the woeful Wallabies, as has been shown by five consecutive defeats under Eddie Jones, are at a low ebb.

So, while there were clear improvements by the All Blacks another year down the track under Foster, Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt, it was always dangerous to jump to any conclusions. They had yet to be tested by one of the northern beasts, or the Saffas anywhere near their best.

Now they have been. And the sight at Twickenham of the brutal Boks squeezing the life out of the New Zealanders up front, bossing them at the breakdown, strangling them at the set piece and breezing through them with ball in hand was, well, sobering.

But has it really changed anything?

The essential recipe the South Africans used at Twickenham was the same one England embraced in the World Cup semifinal in 2019, and Ireland in their various successes of late, and, to a lesser extent, France in 2021 in Paris.

If you can put the heat on the All Blacks in the forwards, get up and knock them over with your defensive line before they can get things flowing, and establish scoreboard and mental pressure, then they are highly beatable.

The Boks clearly reinforced that on Saturday. They were magnificent in their ferocity, intent and relentlessness. They looked back to their best. And they delivered a statement that the road to this World Cup runs through the defending champions.

Nobody has figured out the formula for World Cup success better than this outfit. Nobody is more comfortable in their own skin, more confident in their style and more commanding in their approach than the big, bad Boks who suddenly look transformed with Rassie Erasmus back calling the shots.

They have also reinforced the absurdity of World Rugby’s comical faux pas that groups the four best teams on the planet in the same half of the draw.

This has to be the most lopsided World Cup in history. The other bracket is lighter than candy floss, and leaves form-free teams such as England, Wales and Australia with realistic chances of making the semifinals with barely a speed bump to clear.

The All Blacks, on the other hand, are going to have to get past either South Africa or Ireland (though Scotland will have a say on that) in a quarterfinal on October 14 or 15, and that was a daunting prospect before the events of the weekend, and remains one after.

It’s why, in many ways, the tournament opener on September 8 in Paris, while a delicious affair between the hosts and the iconic All Blacks, is largely irrelevant. Win or lose you face a ferocious quarter. It’s Hobson’s choice. Both will be confident after recent success against the men in black.

In fact, there is every chance the World Cup final could be between two teams from the same pool. France-New Zealand. Or South Africa-Ireland. Both are absolute prospects.

So, it all comes down to how the cards fall (as the Boks well know, the field can open up at these global gatherings) and how effectively you build form, cohesion and confidence through the tournament.

The appearance might be the All Blacks’ hopes stand on a knife-edge after their Twickenham tumble. The reality is they always have.

Of course there has been no shortage of knee-jerk reactions to the Boks reality check. But dig deeper. Think harder. Avoid the clickbait mentality.

The game was swayed by a red card. Yes, it was avoidable and deserved. But the New Zealanders keep 15 on the field and things play out differently. That call goes the other way, and down becomes up.

Takeaways? The All Blacks couldn’t deal with a hardline referee, and failed to adjust accordingly. That’s on Sam Cane. They have to be better.

They also couldn’t cope with the aggressive defence and sheer power of the Boks forwards. Jason Ryan will have smoke coming out of his cauliflower ears all week in Bavaria over that,

The response must come. Adjustments too. But not necessarily for Paris on September 8, when the New Zealanders will be without at least three nailed-on starters. October 14 and 15 is when you must be at your World Cup best.