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Analysis: Close your eyes and imagine Super Rugby Pacific’s power brokers hadn’t tarnished the competition with a laughable format.
In this imaginary and common-sense world only the top-four teams in the 12-team competition qualify for the semifinals, half the number of sides in the hunt in reality.
The Australians might call it cruel. But rather it’s a trying world. Scott Robertson and the fifth-placed Crusaders are scrapping for their playoff lives after suffering their third loss of the season.
So are the Blues and Hurricanes. Every match in the regular season is crucial, leaving fans sweating on results as they ponder the possibility of their team missing out on sudden-death rugby.
It’s great for the competition. Punters are far more engaged, helping motivate them to get off their couch and attend matches.
But that’s not the reality. Indeed, it’s not hard to figure out what’s wrong with a competition which would also benefit considerably by opting for a top-six playoff format, handing the top-two teams first-round byes, as was the case in Super 15 (2011-2015).
There simply has to be more on the line during the regular season, rather than teams going through the motions and knowing as few as four wins could be enough, as the Highlanders proved last year.
Just check out Crusaders assistant coach James Marshall’s comments a fortnight ago when the Crusaders had a 5-2 record.
“Everyone knows that we are building towards the big games towards the end of the year. It’s a top-eight competition, we’re already in the top-eight, I’d imagine,” Marshall said.
“It’s going to come down to three massive [playoff] games at the end of the year.”
Here are this week’s power rankings, in which staff ignore the official ladder and rank the 12 teams.
1. CHIEFS (9-0) PREVIOUS RANK: 1
Look at those Chiefs. Less than three years since losing all eight games in Super Rugby Aotearoa, they’re tracking towards an undefeated regular season.
Having beaten the Crusaders for the second time this year, the Hurricanes and Brumbies are the only sides with a realistic shot at spoiling their party.
Of course, the playoffs will be an entirely different beast.
2. HURRICANES (7-2) PREVIOUS RANK:
They’ve finally beaten a legitimate contender (Brumbies), but tougher challenges loom once they navigate matches against the Drua (away) and Moana Pasifika (home).
After all, their last three games are against the Chiefs (away), Blues (away) and Crusaders (home).
Talk about a defining stretch to close out the regular season.
3. BLUES (6-3) PREVIOUS RANK: 4
Somewhat below the radar in recent weeks due to all the Chiefs-Crusaders chat, don’t forget about the Blues.
They should handle Moana Pasifika this weekend and take a four-match winning streak into Saturday week’s tasty clash with the Crusaders in Christchurch.
4. CRUSADERS (6-3) PREVIOUS RANK: 3
Had every chance to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the year, but couldn’t turn a mountain of possession and territory into enough points.
While they departed Hamilton confident of reversing the result should they get another crack, you do sense they’ll need fullback Will Jordan (migraine related illness) back if they’re to defend their crown.
5. BRUMBIES (7-2) PREVIOUS RANK: 2
Not helped by the Hurricanes getting away with an awfully wonky lineout throw in the lead up to an Ardie Savea try, the Brumbies slipped up for the second time this season.
Now, they might well need to win out to seal the second seed – easier said than done when they still have to face the Chiefs.
6. REDS (4-5) PREVIOUS RANK: 7
It never pays to panic in this competition.
Just look at Brad Thorn’s Reds, who were overshadowed by doom and gloom talk only a few short weeks ago.
Now, they’ve won two straight and playoff rugby is well and truly on the cards.
7. REBELS (3-6) PREVIOUS RANK: 8
Here’s a team which loves nothing more than putting their fans through the wringer in the final 20 minutes of matches.
They managed to hang on to their lead against Moana Pasifika last week, but will need to go closer to 80 minutes to have any chance against the Brumbies on Sunday.
8. WARATAHS (3-6) PREVIOUS RANK: 10
One of five teams with three wins and six losses, they sure needed that last-ditch victory over the Highlanders last week.
Now, to tackle their biggest rival – the Reds in Townsville – in a match crucial to both teams’ playoff aspirations.
9. FIJIAN DRUA (3-6) PREVIOUS RANK: 6
As entertaining as the Drua are to watch, they’re equally frustrating due to their ineptness at set piece time, something the Blues badly exposed last weekend.
This team would be scary good if they had a solid scrum and functioning lineout.
10. FORCE (3-6) PREVIOUS RANK: 9
Couldn’t back up their big win over the Highlanders by toppling the Reds, and must now head to Christchurch to face the Crusaders.
It’s fair to say the Chiefs didn’t do their chances of pulling off a great ambush any chances last weekend.
11. HIGHLANDERS (3-6) PREVIOUS RANK: 11
Remember when Highlanders fans were giddy about a pre-season win over the Crusaders in Weston in February?
Yep, pre-season results are about as meaningless as political promises during an election year.
Just look at the Highlanders now, the team responsible for two of the three defeats by New Zealand teams against their Aussie foes.
12. MOANA PASIFIKA (0-9) PREVIOUS RANK: 12
Not since 2010 has a team failed to go through a multi-country Super Rugby competition without winning a game (the Chiefs lost all eight games in Super Rugby Aotearoa in 2020).
But Moana Pasifika is quickly running out of time to avoid matching the Lions, who lost all 13 games en route to the wooden spoon more than a decade ago.
They close out the regular season against the Blues (away), Hurricanes (away), Crusaders (home), Fijian Drua (away) and Waratahs (away).
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